National League 2023-24 Club-by-Club Review (2024)

The National League 2023-24 campaign will go down as one to remember for a myriad of reasons.

For the bad. The shambolic play-off situation. The National League choosing to side with the Premier League over FA Cup replays while its clubs released statements against it. The noises around a 32-team tournament involving Premier League U21 clubs.

For the chaotic. Eleven clubs announced the departure of a manager. Three announced the departure of two managers. Three clubs used a whopping 41 players. Three clubs found themselves playing four games in a week at the back end of the season.

For the brilliant. Title winners Chesterfield setting the highest standard of any title winner until they didn’t need to. Exciting play-off and FA Trophy finals at Wembley. A relegation scrap like no other with five teams knowing they could have been relegated on final day and all having their fate in their own hands. Chesterfield, Aldershot Town and Eastleigh reaching the third round of FA Cup.

The National League is a wonderful division for so many reasons.

It’s where former EFL and even Premier League clubs compete with non-league stalwarts and full-time outfits meet part-timers. It’s where you can see a average of 2.94 goals per game. It’s where you can see a complete range of styles from those trying to play total football while others go for a more traditional style. It’s where you see truly quality individuals stand out from the pack, proving themselves ready for the climb up the divisions.

Speaking of climbing divisions, we say goodbye to Chesterfield, worthy title winners that set an astonishing pace over the first few months of the season, and Bromley, who will embark on a first ever EFL campaign following a penalty shoot-out victory at Wembley.

At the other end, the step up proved too much for Oxford City, Marc White’s huge personality alone wasn’t enough to keep Dorking Wanderers in the division and the same can be said for Phil Brown and Kidderminster Harriers while Boreham Wood’s inability to break down a stubborn Ebbsfleet United side on final day meant they return to regional football.

Before we roll out the welcome mat to Forest Green Rovers, Sutton United, Tamworth, Boston United, Yeovil Town and Braintree Town – congratulations and commiserations to all – it’s time to take one last final look at the season that was.

Below is a review of all 24 National League clubs, including:

•A look back at my pre-season predictions

•What actually unfolded

•The statistics that defined the team’s campaign

•Which players stood out

•A look ahead to next season

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Position: 18th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 15; D 10; L 21; F 74; A 82; GD –8; Pts 55

Most Starts: Theo Richardson – 42

Top Goalscorer: Nick Haughton – 18

Clean Sheets: 6

Worst Discipline: Josh Kay – 10Y

The Prediction: 10th

I’m feeling positive about Fylde. I get the impression that there is joined up thinking across those in charge of the various footballing departments. The squad is settled after a barnstorming second half of last season and much of their recruitment was done early doors, allowing Adam Murray to integrate a few new bodies to an already strong group. They have a clear way of playing, a strong spine, some genuine stardust and the resources to improve further should they need to. A top half finish is a realistic aim.

The Reality

Despite there being eight places between my predicted finish and their actual finish, I wasn’t too far wrong with my pre-season beliefs about AFC Fylde – it just took a change in the dugout to make it happen. Their campaign couldn’t have started worse and Adam Murray paid the price after 15 games, his side rooted to the bottom of the table having lost ten and conceded 35. I felt sympathy for Murray as a neutral, his post-match interviews matching what I was seeing in terms of performances and frustrations over errors but as he chopped and changed and added new personnel but nothing worked. In the end, it felt like the only change left to make was removing Murray. Chris Beech stepped down from the stands to the dugout and his influence on the squad was palpable. He changed shape, found a consistent spine, brought back individuals that had found game time hard to come by and allowed players to develop at a higher level. Over his 31 games in charge, Fylde performed as the 9th best side in the league to secure their National League status.

The Stats

If you were a neutral choosing to follow a team this season, Fylde would have been one of the better choices from a purely footballing perspective. They scored more goals than any other bottom half side (74), saw both teams score in two-thirds of their matches (joint third), kept the second fewest clean sheets (6) and picked up a higher percentage of their points against top half sides (56%) than any other team in the league. Continuing on that theme, they had the second most shots, scored the second most goals in the first 15 minutes of matches, committed to the most 1v1 dribbles but found themselves behind for 33% of all minutes played, the second highest. As a Fylde fan, they can take some solace in the underlying numbers – Wyscout’s xG tallies have them as the biggest underperformers defensively and third biggest underperformers offensively. More to come indeed.

Who Stood Out?

Nick Haughton was the man many expected to step up and be counted for Fylde this season and as the team around him improved, he shone. The diminutive attacking midfielder has magic in his boots and his 24 direct goal contributions include two direct free-kick and a goal from halfway. Pace has been a huge part of their rise up the table with Jon Ustabasi and Connor Barrett finding their feet. Ethan Mitchell and Sam Graham proved excellent additions, marshalled by the experienced Harry Davis. And I have to mention Danny Ormerod, the teenage striker that forced his way into the XI and has a clear eye for goal.

What Happens Next?

Continue to do what works. Chris Beech is the club’s Director of Football and was installed as Head Coach until the end of the season initially, meaning that a decision still needs to be made on whether he continues in the role or allows the club to bring somebody else in. You have to assume the other directors are persuading him to stay in the dugout after his impact this year. If he does stick it out, I think I’ll be backing Fylde for a top seven finish next season. If he moves back to the boardroom, it will be a case of wait and see.

Aldershot Town

Position: 8th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 20; D 9; L 17; F 74; A 83; GD –9; Pts 69

Most Starts: Ollie Harfield – 46

Top Goalscorer: Lorent Taloj – 19

Clean Sheets: 9

Worst Discipline: Josh Stokes – 15Y 1R

The Prediction: 22nd

At the end of last season, I felt positive about Widdrington and Aldershot and this may be a selection I regret come the end of the season. However, with budgetary constraints and the rest of the division continuing to get stronger, The Shots are always going to find it tough. Pre-season has been hampered by injuries, not a huge surprise given a number of their new signings have had struggles with injuries in the past. I’m expecting more arrivals but have come to the conclusion this is likely to be a tough year in Hampshire, and another managerial change also wouldn’t be a major surprise.

The Reality

I knew it. I never felt comfortable placing Aldershot in 22nd and I should have trusted my gut. My worry was that they might get off to another shoddy start and the owner would pull the trigger again, especially given the injuries they suffered. But Tommy Widdrington is a very self-assured individual and having been backed to bring in his own staff, they recruited excellently and backed themselves to coach a shape that brought the best out of key players. Their calculated gambles paid off – quite literally in the case of Josh Stokes – and they spent the campaign more concerned with the top 7 rather than the bottom 4. The tone of their campaign was set with 5-2 and 1-5 scorelines in their opening two matches, the Shots committing to an open, attacking 3-4-1-2 shape that brought about plenty of goals at both ends. They massively improved their home form and enjoyed a couple of excellent runs of form but a young squad ran out of steam. Considering expectations were low coming into the campaign, the Shots can look back with some pride and belief that this is just the start.

The Stats

Aldershot had a curious campaign, one with highs and lows and it means their most prominent statistics are indifferent. They were nothing if not entertaining with an average of 3.41 goals total per game (3rd highest). Only the bottom two and Eastleigh conceded more than Aldershot while at the other end, they scored 3 or more on 12 occasions and scored 7 penalties – second on both accounts. They had the worst discipline of any National League outfit – 108 yellow cards and 8 reds – while only Oxford City lost more away games than Aldershot’s 13. Perhaps all this speaks to the naivety that comes with having the third youngest side in the division based on minutes played.

Who Stood Out?

Josh Stokes is the obvious one, probably the National League signing of the season given where he has come from and where he’s heading to. Lorent Taloj is a player I’ve been infatuated with since the opening day, possessing all the physical tools, a dream of a left foot and a creative side too. Jack Barham is less heralded but a vital part of an excellent front three thanks to his speed, energy, work ethic and poaching instincts. Behind them, Ollie Harfield has started every league game, Cian Harries was imperative in setting up many attacks from the back, as well as becoming an expert penalty taker, while wide men Tyler Frost and Ryan Glover performed in a number of different roles throughout the campaign.

What Happens Next?

A club like Aldershot are always going to operate on whatever they can bring in, so having a positive campaign and seeing a couple of transfer risks pay off handsomely means they can stretch the budget further next season. The challenge will now lay at the feet of Widdrington and his team to go again, recruit to the same level if not better and tighten up a defence that was way too open at times last year.

Position: 4th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 22; D 11; L 13; F 84; A 59; GD 25; Pts 77

Most Starts: Elliot Osborne – 44

Top Goalscorer: Chris Conn-Clarke – 23

Clean Sheets: 13

Worst Discipline: Elliot Osborne – 11Y 1R

The Prediction: 12th

Many are going big on Alty this summer and it’s completely understandable given the quality of football they play, the management team and how settled they have become off the pitch. I think the club have taken the right approach to recruitment and the squad looks strong on paper. I’m expecting them to be a little tighter defensively – something they desperately need to improve on if they are to move up the league table – and they will always be good for a few goals. A top half finish is in their sights. Can they go even better? They may need a little bit more.

The Reality

That “little bit more” may have been Alex Newby, who arrived after Alty had won two and lost of their opening ten matches. His addition allowed Phil Parkinson to stick more rigidly to his preferred 4-2-3-1 shape, especially with Jake Cooper and Lewis Baines striking up a partnership that would prove reliable and last the course. They won 20 of their last 36 matches, finally showing an ability to keep clean sheets while picking up two points per game at home and seeing their attack thrive, including the brilliant Chris Conn-Clarke. This was Alty’s true breakout campaign after three years of consolidation and gradual improvement. And though they couldn’t achieve promotion through the play-offs, they have left themselves in a great spot heading into next season.

The Stats

Altrincham had a fantastic season and a few standard statistics go some way to backing that up. They are joint third for most wins and goal difference, were one of three sides to achieve two points per game at home and also sit third for both time spent winning and losing. Fast starts were a big part of their game, taking the lead in 27 matches (2nd), having the third best first half record and scoring more first half goals than any other team (45). They were pretty ruthless, failing to score on 7 occasions (3rd) and overachieving against their xG by over 18 goals. Being flat track bullies helps too – they were unbeaten against the bottom seven. As for performance metrics, a few stand out. Their possession heavy style shows in them playing the third smallest percentage of their passes long and they clearly teased opponents given they finished up as the most fouled team in the league. Their opponents aggression wasn’t matched, Alty committing the fewest fouls in the National League, having the second highest PPDA (13.68) and conceding the 5th most shots.

Who Stood Out?

I’ve already mentioned some of these names above, but lets nail them down. Chris Conn-Clarke was one of the players of the season, racking up more goal contributions than any other player in the division. The way he and Newby, who often started to his left, dovetailed was a joy to watch – Alty had two attacking midfielders stronger than the level and it showed so often. Lewis Baines and Jake Cooper had big seasons at centre-back and ahead of them, Isaac Marriott and Elliot Osborne stepped up as leaders. The additions of Ethan Ross and Lewis Banks proved important for the balance of the side.

What Happens Next?

Alty continue on the same path. They are full-time, have committed their management team to new deals, have a number of key players still under contract and continue to grow off the field too. The summer won’t be without it’s difficulties – they will sell a couple of key players with Conn-Clarke amongst them – but their processes look strong and recruitment has been a strength in recent seasons. The club have put themselves on the map this season and it’s all about continued growth going into next season.

Barnet

Position: 2nd

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 26; D 8; L 12; F 91; A 60; GD +31; Pts 86

Most Starts: Anthony Hartigan – 43

Top Goalscorer: Nicke Kabamba – 25

Clean Sheets: 13

Worst Discipline: Anthony Hartigan 13Y

The Prediction: 9th

Things are still positive at Barnet and Brennan isn’t about to let his foot off the gas as far as their promotion ambitions are concerned. Will they make the play-offs in consecutive years? It’s not out of the question and they should be there or thereabouts. Two things put me off backing it. Firstly, they massively overachieved against their data last year and need to show something a little different this year. Secondly, the recruitment. It’s left me with as many questions as answers and I haven’t quite been able to convince myself it’s enough to undeniably improve the XI.

The Reality

Brennan and Barnet blew expectations out of the water with a fast and furious start that suggested we could have another record-breaking title race on our hands. It wasn’t to be, Barnet unable to keep up with Chesterfield, but it was still an excellent effort to finish in 2nd place – and they were absolutely the second best team in the division. There is a feeling that Barnet have missed a big opportunity not going up this season. Brennan set the bar high, demanded ruthlessness, criticised those he didn’t feel reached those high standards, made bold calls and got the backing he wanted to reach the goal of promotion. Being dismantled by Solihull Moors in the play-off semi-final didn’t help. However, this was unquestionably a fantastic season and further proof of their growth in recent years and should be viewed as a campaign to build upon.

The Stats

Barnet were very good and very ruthless. They sit second for most wins, goals scored, goal difference and home record. They were consistent against poorer sides, being the only team in the division to finish with a perfect record against the bottom four while winning 15 of 17 home matches against sides outside of the top seven. They had the best first half record, leading on 22 occasions, scored 15 goals in the first 15 minutes of matches, a division high, and the second best record when scoring (2.46 points per game) and conceding (1.11 ppg) first. They also led for 40.1% of minutes played – a division high. Such goal metrics were deserved too, Barnet sitting third for xG and xGD. There were positives stylistically too, having the third highest average possession (57.6%) and joint highest PPDA (8.01). A statistic that also interests me is that Barnet were the only National League side not receive a single red card.

Who Stood Out?

Many. But three names in particular spring to mind. To fly high in the National League, you need a reliable striker and few have proven as good as Nicke Kabamba, who finished up with 26 league goals. Danny Collinge was excellent at the back, being the starter of their attacks from whichever centre back role he occupied and reaching double figures for goals. And Anthony Hartigan, who arrived in matchday three, started on matchday four and never left the XI again as he dictated things for Barnet from deep in midfield. Elsewhere, Ade Oluwo stepped up without issue, Jerome Okimo was as reliable as ever and attacking pair Zak Brunt and Callum Stead were key parts of the attack.

What Happens Next?

I’m fascinated by how this plays out. Barnet are close. It’s effectively Year Three of the cycle for Dean Brennan and Barnet and if they make the right decisions, they could be celebrating with the National League title next year. Both manager and owner are comfortable being ruthless and making tough calls, so it’s all about whether they get those big decisions right. Their run from relegation fodder to promotion candidates has been built on the trust that Brennan knows what he’s doing and he has been more than backed his by his owner. The budget will likely increase again this year while Brennan is being linked to EFL jobs. If they are to be successful both parties need to be all-in from the off with no doubts about each other and the decisions made over the summer. With two signings already in the building, the signs are positive.

Position: 21st

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 12; D 16; L 18; F 59; A 73; GD –14; Pts 52

Most Starts: Nathan Ashmore & Femi Ilesanmi – 46

Top Goalscorer: Lee Ndlovu – 10

Clean Sheets: 11

Worst Discipline: Billy Sass-Davies – 11Y 1R

The Prediction: 5th

I wasn’t expecting to place Boreham Wood this high, if I’m honest. When I think back to what cost Boreham Wood for much of last season, it was availability and goals. I believe the first issue has been resolved, David Agbontohoma and Chris Bush barely missing a game after arriving last year while Jack Payne proved ever-reliable. Tom Whelan and Mo Sagaf are also reliable and disciplined figures that should fit a Garrard side. The final challenge is goals. While I’m not sold on Balanta (injuries) and Abraham (inconsistency) being consistent figures, Appiah should be fine at this level and should provide competition for Ndlovu and Marsh. I’ve talked myself into Boreham Wood reaching the play-offs for a second consecutive campaign.

The Reality

In a sense, I wasn’t wrong about goals – they scored 7 more goals despite finishing 15 places lower. However, they weren’t prolific and availability was a big problem. By August Bank Holiday, they were making emergency signings to be able to field an XI and Garrard wasn’t able to select close to his strongest team until mid-October. However, Garrard isn’t a man to make excuses or give his side reason to find them. Ultimately, they weren’t good enough. The defensive solidity that has become so synonymous with The Wood in recent years evaporated, too often conceding the first goal and having to chase a result rather than hold onto one. It’s hard to know exactly why things changed so much. Garrard referenced a lack of clarity after his departure and his side going undefeated and not conceding a goal following the announcement suggests he had a point. Whatever the reasons, his otherwise successful tenure ended with relegation and the club now start a new era without him.

The Stats

Boreham Wood couldn’t get over the line enough, their 16 draws the third highest in the division while their 12 wins were the third fewest. A lack of goals was problematic, Luke Garrard’s team scoring 1 or 0 on 32 occasions, joint third highest, and scoring the second fewest goals in the final 15 minutes of games. The surprise with The Wood was their defensive record, unhelped by an xGA underperfomance of almost 10 goals. Style and age remain concerns, Boreham Wood fielding the second oldest team in the league on average (29.9), having the third smallest share of possession (42.9%) and playing the third highest percentage of long passes (19.92%). Given the high experience of the side, receiving the joint second most red cards (7) will be a frustration.

Who Stood Out?

It says plenty that I’m finding this difficult. Firstly, Femi Ilesanmi deserves big credit for playing all but five minutes available this season. Considering the injury he had a couple of years back, it makes it even more impressive that he has been so consistent in his availability. Matt Robinson had a good impact after joining on loan and there is a growing call for the club to try and sign him permanently. Erico Sousa was the team’s most creative spark and they missed him when unavailable – he finished up with 8 goals and assists apiece.

What Happens Next?

Change. They return to the National League regional divisions for the first time since 2015 and will also be employing a new manager since the same year too. Jamal Fyfield ends a six-year association with the club while Femi Ilesanmi and Tyrone Marsh could yet depart. However, change doesn’t have to be scary. They return to Step 2 as a full-time operation with some wonderful experiences behind them, an increased fanbase and stadium improvements. Their owner remains as supportive as ever and Ross Jenkins, who will be supported by long-term assistant Lloyd Doyley and club legend Mark Ricketts, is a progressive coach with recent promotion experience from the level.

Bromley

Position: 3rd

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 22; D 15; L 9; F 73; A 49; GD 24; Pts 81

Most Starts: Corey Whitely – 45

Dagenham and Redbridge

Position: 15th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 14; D 14; L 18; F 69; A 63; GD 6; Pts 56

Most Starts: Elliot Justham & Jake Hessenthaler – 46

Top Goalscorer: Inih Effiong – 16

Clean Sheets: 7

Worst Discipline: Harry Phipps – 6Y 1R

The Prediction: 13th

None of the decisions this summer have changed my mind in terms of how I see Ben Strevens’ first season as Dagenham and Redbridge manager panning out. I do see them being inconsistent but a different kind of inconsistent to what they are used to. Over the last couple of years, the Daggers could win 4-1 then lose 4-0 the next week, or they would win six of eight before winning one of the next ten. This year, I think they’re more likely to focus on being competitive each week and harder to beat, which will lead to games being played on finer margins. I think a mid-table finish is most likely as Strevens attempts to change the identity of the team, hoping for a top seven push but predominantly looking to set themselves up for a stronger challenge the year after.

The Reality

Pretty much as written above. They finished 5 places and 7 points worse off than the previous campaign but with a 17-goal improvement in terms of goal difference and turning their underlying attacking numbers from the 6th worse in the division to the 6th best. Strevens spoke a lot about identity and togetherness and it was a good sign that he felt comfortable integrating younger players into his side pretty quickly having had concerns initially. His team relied upon an experienced spine and it’s no surprise that their worst run of the campaign came when both Tom Eastman and Inih Effiong were unavailable. Otherwise, inconsistency was the name of the game with Strevens’ side winning, drawing and losing back-to-back games only once from early October onwards. They never really looked like going down, never troubled the top 7. Just a solid, mid-table campaign.

The Stats

The Daggers’ season can be defined by them getting the game plan right but failing to adapt to changes or show the ruthless streak required to shut the game down. For example, they rank joint third for conceding 1 or 0 goals (31 matches) but also third bottom for clean sheets (7). They conceded the fewest goals in the first 15 minutes of matches (3) but conceded 16 in minutes 46-60. They took the lead on 27 occasions (joint 2nd highest) but spent 60.2% of their matches level (highest). Scoring first was important too – they picked up just 4 points from the 16 matches in which they conceded first. The frustration will be that they are close to getting it right, having accrued the 6th highest xG for numbers and were the only bottom half side to finish with a positive goal difference. Collecting more points against top half sides will be part of the “need to improve” list – only Oxford City collected a higher percentage of their points against bottom half teams.

Who Stood Out?

Inih Effiong is timeless and not even a campaign in which he was ruled out of action on health grounds stopped him scoring 16 league goals and being difficult to replace. His partner in crime Josh Rees had a fantastic season, his ability to drift into the area unnoticed and score from wide deliveries as good as it comes at this level. The spine of the team developed nicely with the ever-present pair of captain Elliot Justham and Jake Hessenthaler supported by the experienced Tom Eastman. Words on Ryan Hill, a real bundle of energy whose directness was key to the Daggers attack and Harry Phipps, who deserves a mention for filling in up top better than anybody else managed this campaign.

What Happens Next?

I’m confident the club are in good hands under Strevens and I expect them to try and push on next season, looking to find more reliability in terms of the starting XI and finding that bit of extra quality to turn them into a more consistent side as far as results are concerned. The curveball is the ownership situation with the club openly looking to sell and the budget likely to reduce as a result. That is nothing new to Strevens, who inherited a similar situation at Eastleigh, but their ambition to climb a division that remains very competitive won’t be made easy.

Position: 23rd

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 12; D 9; L 25; F 54; A 85; GD –31; Pts 45

Most Starts: Harrison Male – 45

Top Goalscorer: Jason Prior – 11

Clean Sheets: 10

Worst Discipline: Dan Pybus – 9Y 1R

The Prediction: 19th

Full disclosure, I wasn’t sure where to place Dorking this season and after deciding on the rest of the division, I had a spot left in 19th. It felt as good a place as any. Here’s the thing – Dorking aren’t getting relegated this season. I think they’re very aware of what they need to do. However, we probably have to be careful about using the back end of last season as a yardstick for their form this season as it’s hard to imagine White wanting to start the season playing a more attritional style – I think we’ll see the open, fun version of Dorking which will yield results but not to the same level. There’s also the question of how many members of their starting XI will start regularly – they will have up and downs as far as availability goes. I’m also comfortable with a 19th place finish because I can’t see White and this group going hell for leather if they no longer have anything to play for, which is fine – they'll know where they stand the following year.

The Reality

“Here’s the thing – Dorking aren’t getting relegated this season.” Oops.

It felt like we never saw the real version of Marc White’s Dorking Wanderers this season. I don’t tend to sympathise with those that use injuries as an excuse but I think it becomes a valid point for Dorking, a club whose unique style and identity has been the driving force behind their success. That they’re also a part-time outfit and a small fish in the National League pond only further necessitated the need for some consistency on the pitch and it never really came. White did his best to stick to the preferred style that has worked so well over the years but they never reached those levels with any consistency, leading to something of a halfway house at times, particularly out of possession. They took some heavy beatings. Home form suffered. And yet, there was always a sense that the Wanderers spirit would give them something. They huffed and puffed but a patched up side recorded their last win in early March – that thumping of Chesterfield – and ultimately fell short.

The Stats

When you score the joint third fewest goals and concede the third most, you’re in trouble. Especially when that translates to collecting the third fewest wins and second most defeats. The underlying numbers aren’t much better, conceding the second most shots, having the second worst xGA and third worst xGD. They spent 32.3% of matches behind (3rd highest), conceding three or more goals on 13 occasions (2nd highest) and 13 in the first 15 minutes of games (3rd highest). Their issues at home were well documented by White – Dorking had the second worst home record, recording less than a point per game and the most defeats. And the rest can be put down to age (oldest squad in the league based on minutes played at 30.2 years of age), mentality (Dorking failed to win back-to-back matches from October onwards and didn’t go more than two games without defeat), fitness (third worst second half record, second fewest second half goals (30), third worst record when coming from behind) and discipline (third worst disciplinary record with 105 yellow cards and four reds).

Who Stood Out?

Harrison Male. It turns out that when you’re good with the ball at your feet and have the reflexes of a cat, you don’t need to be 6”6 to be a goalkeeper. Male has been the busiest goalkeeper in the league and he’s used that time to prove himself capable of stepping up. Josh Taylor was comfortably Dorking’s most consistent outfielder, the only one to start more than 35 games and rarely giving less than his best. Jason Prior led the line as best he could, reaching double figures. Charlie Carter showcased his quality once fit.

What Happens Next?

If Marc White gets his way, an immediate return to the National League as National League South Champions. It’s a difficult balance to strike for White this summer, knowing who to move on – he has acknowledged being too loyal to some while it’s clear he doesn’t trust others – while adding players that will enhance the quality and leadership already within the building. That includes finding some reliable footballers given the injury issues they have suffered for both of their National League campaigns, and even the one or two before that. My expectation is that Dorking will find themselves near the top of the league and we will see a side that resembles the style and spirit associated with the club – but it wouldn’t be Dorking if there aren’t peaks and troughs through the season and if they do win promotion, they won’t make it easy for themselves.

Eastleigh

Position: 13th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 16; D 11; L 19; F 73; A 87; GD –14; Pts 59

Most Starts: Joe McDonnell – 46

Top Goalscorer: Paul McCallum – 31

Clean Sheets: 8

Worst Discipline: Paul McCallum – 11Y 1R

The Prediction: 11th

I’m going to find this one tricky to explain as it’s mostly gut feeling. On paper, the squad that Eastleigh have put together looks fantastic and if it pays off, it could do spectacularly. However, it’s also a squad that presents a lot of unknowns. For starters, the culture set last season is largely written off because of the wholesale changes to the squad. Several of the players signed do so on the back of seasons in which they haven’t played so much football, or drop to this level because they are now in their 30’s. I’m not sure how many of the players they have signed will prove reliable.

The Reality

I think my pre-season assessment was pretty fair given their mid-table finish, quality going forward and real issues as a defensive unit. However, few would have predicted a campaign that contained three managers, over 150 goals being scored in their matches and flirtations with the top seven and bottom four. Stewart Donald and Director of Football Richard Hill increased the budget and oversaw a squad overhaul with Lee Bradbury, who lasted all but five matches – three draws and two losses – before being replaced by Hill. Hill simplified things, found a way of getting Chris Maguire, Paul McCallum and Scott Quigley into the same XI and producing the goods on a regular basis as his side won 10 of his first 19 – they were 8th. However, fans were never convinced and their poor defensive record came back to bite them, losing seven of a winless nine-match run that saw Hill lose his job as the side plummeted towards the relegation places. Kelvin Davis was an out-of-the-blue appointment but did the job required, winning six of his 13 in charge to secure safety.

The Stats

That Eastleigh survived said a lot about the individual quality they had on display, because they were not a good football team. They conceded the second most goals (87), the second most goals in the second half of matches (54), and three or more goals on 16 occasions (highest). They conceded the most goals in the final 15 minutes of matches (23) and had the worst goal difference in the final 15 minutes (-10). They had the third lowest xG, third worst xGA and second worst xGD (-25.9). They took the second fewest shots, had the second fewest touches in the opposition box and conceded the third most shots. They accrued a whopping 46% of their points against the bottom six teams. But they had Paul McCallum, Chris Maguire and Scott Quigley. They had the second biggest overperformance of their xG for numbers. That was enough.

Who Stood Out?

The front three. Paul McCallum rightly took a lot of the plaudits, scoring 31 league goals to take the National League trophy for most goals as well as a famous brace against Reading in the FA Cup. His partners in crime have been less heralded but similarly brilliant, both Chris Maguire and Scott Quigley surpassing double figures for goals AND assists. By my calculations, the trio directly contributed to 61 of their 73 league goals. At the other end, Joe McDonnell was one of the busier goalkeepers in the division and received plenty of praise from Kelvin Davis at the end of the season. Enzio Boldewijn showed he still has quality in an otherwise inconsistent campaign.

What Happens Next?

At this point, I’m not sure. There are no issues with the club off the field in terms of funding and security so it all comes down to their on-field decisions. Their budget is more than competitive which should give them an edge but do I trust them to recruit well and act patiently for success? Not really. Do I know enough about Davis and the changes in structure around him? Not really. A case of watch this space.

Position: 19th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 14; D 12; A 20; F 59; A 74; GD –15; Pts 54

Most Starts: Mark Cousins – 46

Top Goalscorer: Dominic Poleon – 16

Clean Sheets: 10

Worst Discipline: Billy Clifford – 9Y 2R

The Prediction: 17th

While Kutrieb has acknowledged some of the changes his team need to make, I can see them going a similar route to that of Dorking this year – all guns blazing early doors as they find their level before a period of adaptation as they learn to deal with the different kinds of threats the division poses. I’m not sure they’ll find themselves in any relegation trouble but there may be slight drops off at various points.

The Reality

Ebbsfleet certainly came into the league all guns blazing but lacked either the ability or willingness to adapt to the quality of the division under Kutrieb and it led to his and his team’s downfall. The Fleet opened the campaign with four wins from their opening seven and a consistent theme of their football under their German Head Coach was attacking play and entries into the opposition box. However, ruthlessness in the final third began to evade them while their defensive structure was shot to pieces. They won four and lost 14 of the next 24, scoring 24 and conceding almost double that. Kutrieb was replaced with relegation looking a foregone conclusion and Danny Searle was given the reins on an interim basis. He found the key to survival over 15 matches was structure and stability, reducing the number of changes to the XI game-to-game from around 3.4 to 1.1 and the number of goals conceded from 1.8 to 1.2, all while setting up his side in the same shape. Despite failing to score in their last four, they finished up with six wins and six draws from those final 15 to avoid the drop on final day.

The Stats

Ebbsfleet United had a funky season under two different managers and it means that of the 24 clubs I’ve compiled stats for, their list is the shortest. So here are the four notable statistics I compiled. The first is that Ebbsfleet United had the third oldest squad in the division based on minutes played – 29.7. The second is that Ebsfleet United had the second worst away record in the division, accruing less than a point per game on the road – so much for experience. The third is that despite their struggles towards the bottom of the table, the Fleet had the fourth most touches in the opposition box across the campaign, which speaks a lot to their vibrant, open style. And finally, Ebbsfleet’s biggest issue was consistency of performance, highlighted best by them failing to win back-to-back matches under Kutrieb.

Who Stood Out?

Two of the elder statesman deserve a mention first, Mark Cousins proving he can still cut it at National League level while Josh Wright was a consistent figure in the middle of the park. Elsewhere, players went through peaks and troughs. Dominic Poleon scored a respectable 16 in his first season back at the level while partners Dominic Samuel and Rakish Bingham were important figures at different times. I like both Ben Chapman and Toby Edser while Declan Skura took on a big role at the heart of the defence late in the campaign and was superb.

What Happens Next?

Ebbsfleet go into a little bit of the unknown. For the first time post-COVID, they begin a campaign without Dennis Kutrieb at the helm while anywhere between 12 and 24 players, including loanees, could move on to pastures new, at the time of writing. Even with Dominic Poleon, Rakish Bingham, Toby Edser and Luke O’Neill remaining on board, the squad could have a very different look and feel to it come August and Danny Searle and his team look to put their stamp on things. How does that play out? I’m not sure. At this point, I’m not expecting them to be in a promotion race but Searle is a competent coach and leader and should get sufficient backing to build a squad that is more than competitive at the level.

FC Halifax Town

Position: 7th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 19; D 14; L 13; F 58; A 50; GD 8; Pts 71

Most Starts: Sam Johnson & Jamie Stott – 46

Top Goalscorer: Robert Harker – 9

Clean Sheets: 14

Worst Discipline: Tylor Golden – 11Y

The Prediction: 15th

It’s the same story for Halifax. A lot of goodwill remains from last season given they were effectively a top 7 outfit over the course of 35 matches and to defend their transfer policy, only three regulars from last season have departed as things stand. But those three players were leading characters and have been replaced by more raw talent. I don’t anticipate Millington having the same issues he faced at the start of last season but there will be inconsistent form and availability to contend with. Another mid-table finish.

Hartlepool United

Position: 12th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 17; D 9; L 20; F 70; A 82; GD –12; Pts 60

Most Starts: David Ferguson – 44

Top Goalscorer: Emmanuel Dieseruvwe – 23

Clean Sheets: 5

Worst Discipline: Tom Crawford – 12Y

The Prediction: 8th

I’m in a couple of different minds with Hartlepool. We should be concerned by the ongoing ownership situation and the potential friction that could cause. There is also the recruitment, something that the club haven’t found easy this summer as they look to improve their fortunes. However, Askey knows the job and he has recruited some decent characters in a bid to improve his team’s fortunes. I think they’ll be competitive in most matches and flexible depending on the personnel. Hartlepool should have a steady campaign.

The Reality

John Askey knows the division and started bright but this job quickly got away from him as Hartlepool tumbled from the top of the division to the cusp of a relegation scrap. Askey lost a couple of key players to long-term injuries but it should never have derailed them quite as much as it did. It became apparent some players weren’t trusted, a few short-term deals were made with limited success and while the Pools were scoring goals at a good rate, they were conceding an average of two per game. Askey was ousted just before New Year with 76-year-old Lennie Lawrence taking temporary charge. The club reset, bringing back their loanees, letting those on temporary deals go, adding a couple of important pieces to the puzzle to resolve their defensive issues and then appointed Kevin Phillips as manager in late January. The pair won nine and drew five of the 20 games they took charge of and though fans remained cautious of Phillips as a long-term prospect, unhelped by the humiliation at Gateshead, he did lead the team to a mid-table finish. Given the continued off-field woes and lack of stability on and off the pitch, a season of consolidation was a solid effort.

The Stats

Hartlepool United’s campaign was one of chaos. No side used more footballers (41), both sides scored in 74% of their matches (league high) and 30 goals were scored in the first 15 minutes of their matches (highest), split between 14 scored (joint 2nd most) and 16 conceded (most). Defensive issues were chronic for the North East outfit with no side keeping fewer clean sheets than their five, only one side conceding more goals in the final 15 minutes of matches (21). Their underlying numbers weren’t horrific, but their underperformance of them was – the Monkey Hangers conceded almost ten goals more than expected.

Who Stood Out?

Emmanuel Dieseruvwe has had something of a nomadic career but has truly found his feet in recent seasons and led the Hartlepool United line brilliantly, scoring 23 while assisting an additional nine – a fantastic effort for a mid-table outfit. His partner in crime for a lot of the season was Joe Grey, who finally had his breakout season, starting over 30 games and reaching double figures. David Ferguson and Nicky Featherstone remain vitally important to this group as leaders on and off the pitch. Anthony Mancini was an absolute joy to watch when fit and the hope is definitely that fans see more of him next term. Luke Waterfall and Tom Parkes aren’t as sexy but their additions in January helped improve a very leaky backline.

What Happens Next?

Any hopes of a quiet summer were dispelled within a week of the season finishing as Kevin Phillips was removed from his post – he claims the offer of a two-year deal was taken off the table – and Darren Sarll was announced as the club’s new manager. I do think Sarll will breathe some life into a fanbase that never really took to Phillips. There are plenty of reasons it makes sense: he speaks openly, preaches togetherness, his teams work hard, he tends to start well in jobs and his family life should be okay given his partner is from Newcastle. However, his recruitment will need to be spot on this summer – he has a tendency to sign older or unreliable players and won’t have the budget to fix mistakes given the instability off the pitch. I’ll reserve judgement on how I see their campaign going for now.

Position: 22nd

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 11; D 13; L 22; F 40; A 59; GD –19; Pts 46

Most Starts: Christian Dibble – 46

Top Goalscorer: Ashley Hemmings – 10

Clean Sheets: 13

Worst Discipline: Reiss McNally – 10Y 1R

The Prediction: 21st

Kidderminster may have been the big fish in the National League North but that won’t be the case in a National League far different to the one they left in 2016. Their full-time status is no longer an outlier but the norm so they will need to find something more than professionalism to get over the line. I think what Kiddy do have is genuine leadership and a belief in their approach. The primary concern is whether they have enough quality, goals and resources to be better than others, and that’s the most questionable aspect.

The Reality

The primary concern proved to be the most important. Kidderminster Harriers were competitive in almost every game they played but a lack of belief, quality and ruthlessness proved their undoing as too many tight games swung the way of their opposition or had no winner. Russell Penn had the leaders and organisation but his team were toothless in front of goal and having dropped to the bottom of the table, he was relieved of his duties. They had won 4 and scored 20 goals in 28 matches. Few expected Phil Brown to pop up in the Kiddy dugout, at least until it made sense with his link to Dean Holdsworth, but he was exactly what they needed – a big personality with a fearless mindset – and won his first four matches to ignite survival hopes. However, every time Kiddy put themselves within touching distance of exiting the bottom four, they failed to capitalise. Through no lack of effort, they couldn’t find the goals they needed to win key games and ultimately fell short.

The Stats

Goals were a problem. No side scored fewer (40), no side scored fewer in both the first (18) and second half of matches (22), no side failed to score in fewer matches (16) or score 1 or 0 goals in more matches (40), they scored the second fewest in the first (4) and last (9) 15 minutes of matches, and spent less time leading matches (13.3%) than any other side. The frustration is that the margins were so often so close. Despite recording the second fewest wins (11) and third most losses (22), they conceded the joint fewest goals in the second half (25), saw the fewest average goals per game total scored (2.15), saw both sides score in just 50% of matches (joint 2nd lowest), were level for 55.7% of all minutes played (3rd highest) and saw 35 games decided by 1 or 0 goals (league high). It will perhaps be no surprise to Kiddy fans that their xG underperformance was the second biggest in the division (16.78) and more frustrating to see that their xGA was the second best in the division – a ridiculous stat for the side that finished 3rd bottom.

Who Stood Out?

It was a season of ups and downs for many Kiddy players. Their defensive record was the 5th best in the division so Christian Dibble and Caleb Richards deserve credit for being reliable members of the XI while Krystian Pearce was the leader at the heart of the backline. Amari Morgan-Smith led by example up top, always a willing competitor that didn’t shy away from the dirty work. Ashley Hemmings showed up most alongside him with ten goals and teasing deliveries from all angles. There will be regret that Jack Lambert – 10 goal contributions in 26.3 90’s – wasn’t fitter earlier in the campaign while Shane Byrne’s 13 starts saw Kiddy pick up around 40% of their league points total.

What Happens Next?

The big news so far this summer is that Phil Brown has signed a two-year deal, meaning there is clarity around the immediate future and Brown hasn’t shield away from talk of a promotion push. They will be one of few full-time outfits in the league and with Brown at the helm, I anticipate the budget will be maximised with contacts utilised to get some star power in the building. Will we see Brown popping a champagne cork by the end of the campaign? I have my doubts. It’s been six years since the 64-year-old managed a full campaign and there will be far more expectation on him and his team this time around. Still, I expect Kiddy to have one of the stronger squads in the league and Brown loves being written off, so who am I to say it won’t happen.

Maidenhead United

Position: 14th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 15; D 13; L 18; F 60; A 67; GD –7; Pts 58

Most Starts: Craig Ross – 46

Top Goalscorer: Reece Smith – 11

Clean Sheets: 11

Worst Discipline: Zico Asare – 11Y 1R

The Prediction: 20th

Every season, Maidenhead United are tipped for the drop and every season they survive. For EFL fans, think Accrington Stanley (well, until last year). Every year, they just find a way to prove people wrong. The challenge is getting more difficult, however. They remain one of few part-time outfits in the league and there are only so many years you can replace those departing to the same level of success. However, I was burned by Maidenhead last year after being adamant I wouldn’t predict the to get relegated, so they go 20th this year – Devonshire always finds a way.

The Reality

Every season, Maidenhead United are tipped for the drop and every season they survive. Every year, they just find a way to prove people wrong. It doesn’t matter that they spent the majority of the campaign without a reliable striker. It doesn’t matter that their first-choice centre-half partnership made no more than five consecutive appearances together. It doesn’t matter that they went winless for 13 matches, part of which saw them score one goal in eight matches, or hit a separate run of seven defeats in nine. It doesn’t It’s matter that they’re one of four part-time teams in the National League. Alan Devonshire and Maidenhead United find a way. They’ll pick up four wins and three draws at home against the top eight. They’ll hit a run of 14 matches during which they lose two. They’ll score 16 goals in their final six matches to rise from 20th to 14th. They’ll survive.

The Stats

As ever, Maidenhead United don’t do things the normal way. They went on the longest winless run of any National League side and conceded 21 goals in the final 15 minutes of matches (joint 2nd highest). They were the most direct side in the division, playing over 20% of their passes long and having the lowest average possession (41.4%). What they do well is utilise open space, attempting the second most 1v1 dribbles and being the third most fouled team in the league. And stability is important to turning their form around, the Magpies using a joint lowest 24 players in the league.

Who Stood Out?

I have made my feelings about Reece Smith well known. I think the kid is brilliant, an absolute joy to watch and a player destined for the EFL. He wasn’t alone, Ashley Nathaniel-George having comfortably the strongest spell of his career, deployed in various attacking roles and allowed to tease defences with his pace and trickery. A number of young players stepped up, summer signing Casey Petitt quickly earning the trust of his manager and spending the second half of the season as their deepest midfielder while full-backs Zico Asare and Sam Beckwith are developing nicely. Craig Ross provided much needed consistency in net and a word for Remy Clerima, who continues to do a job wherever he’s needed.

What Happens Next?

The same. I don’t mean to be glib or boring about things, but there’s also a lot to be said for consistency. Maidenhead will lose a couple of talents this summer and replace them with a mix of experienced pros and more projects to develop. They’ll be written off in the summer. They’ll bloody the noses of the big fish, especially at home. And they’ll stay up. Because every season, Maidenhead United are tipped for the drop and every season they survive. Every year, they just find a way to prove people wrong.

Position: 10th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 15; D 18; L 13; F 63; A 60; GD 3; Pts 63

Most Starts: Mat Hudson – 44

Top Goalscorer: James Norwood – 17

Clean Sheets: 12

Worst Discipline: Liam Hogan – 14Y 1R

The Prediction: 2nd

I’m sold on the Oldham dream. I thought they finished the season excellently and was curious to see how they would build on that body of work. Their new recruits have played a lot of football and bring with them confidence and quality without the egos that could disrupt things. Most of the squad is of a good age profile and there is strong depth in almost every position, particularly in attack where goals were hard to come by at times last year. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Latics finished the season as Champions but they sit second only because of my faith in Paul Cook finishing the job at Chesterfield.

The Reality

David Unsworth and Oldham Athletic supporters never really got on. The football wasn’t great, fans took issue with a lot of what he said and after standing with and listening to fans in the away end at Bromley, a 3-0 defeat that left them in the bottom four with one win from nine, owner Frank Rothwell made the decision to move him on. Steve Thompson and Neil Redfearn enjoyed an undefeated caretaker spell before five-time promotion winner Micky Mellon took the reins. He won 11 of his first 20 to drive the team into 6th but their home form was problematic and their excellent away form soon suffered, Oldham missing out on the play-offs having failed to win any of their last 11.

The Stats

At this level, Oldham are a huge club with a strong budget but so often failed to show the dominance or spark that should associate with that. No side drew more games than Oldham in the National League (18). Despite having one of the biggest crowds in the division, no side picked up a bigger percentage of their points away from home – no side lost fewer away matches (5) and only four teams had a worse home record. Only AFC Fylde picked up a higher percentage of their points against top half sides, perhaps showcasing Oldham’s preference for playing the underdog. A lack of spark can perhaps be found in statistics such as Oldham committing to the fewest 1v1 dribbles and being the least fouled side in the league. They also had the second worst discipline in the division.

Who Stood Out?

Goalkeeper Mat Hudson quickly replaced Magnus Norman early in the season and never let his place go, performing sufficiently to attract interest from above. Mark Kitching remains one of the stronger full-backs in the division thanks to his tireless running. Nathan Sheron and Charlie Raglan were pretty consistent figures in an otherwise inconsistent campaign. James Norwood has had some issues with fans but his 17 goals was more than respectable and all parties will hope he can stick to or improve on his 1 in 2 record next term.

What Happens Next?

Micky Mellon has a big job this summer. He needs to make some ruthless decisions in order to reduce squad size and find a reliable core to build upon. He has to change the mentality of a group that have suffered at home despite having an excellent support at the level. And if they are to meet expectations of a promotion challenge, they have to hit the ground running, meaning most of these issues need resolving as early as possible this summer. My expectation is that the Latics will finish in the top seven but with so much to resolve, I’m not convinced at this point that they’ll be walking into League Two, even in spite of their budget.

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Oxford City

Position: 24th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 8; D 9; L 29; F 54; A 94; GD –40; Pts 33

Most Starts: Josh Parker – 37

Top Goalscorer: Josh Parker – 14

Clean Sheets: 10

Worst Discipline: Andre Burley – 10Y 1R

The Prediction: 23rd

Is this lazy? It feels a little lazy. Here’s the thought process: I was more comfortable predicting an Oxford City relegation than I was others, therefore they got dropped to the bottom of the pack. I don’t see this being a 23rd whereby Oxford follow Maidstone United in being obviously poor and losing what made them so strong to begin with. I see this being more about Oxford being a part-time outfit with limited funds and a reliance on their first team being available for virtually every game again, which will be tough to repeat. That then leads to some short-termism in certain positions and finding consistency can become a struggle. Rightly or wrongly, that’s how I see the seeing panning out and I would be delighted if they could prove me wrong.

The Reality

I’m sad that the concerns came true. Oxford City felt like a breath of fresh air, a part-time outfit ready to fight fire with fire with a bright young coach and a core that have stuck together for some time and deserved the opportunity. After a brutal welcome, they went seven unbeaten and stepped into mid-table. Sustaining that form proved problematic as injuries and the short-term stopgaps arrived, Jenkins unable to field a fully fit version of his strongest XI, or close to it, again. Oxford didn’t shy away from the battle and there were bright moments – doing the double over Ebbsfleet United, beating Fylde and Woking and a point against Southend United. But chronic defensive issues killed their chances of survival, conceding over two goals per game as they lost 26 of their final 36 with their hopes all but gone after three consecutive defeats in early February, including the killer against Kidderminster Harriers when they led 2-0.

The Stats

Unfortunately it was a bad year for Oxford and they ranked worst for the following statistics: Fewest wins (8), most losses (29), most conceded (94), worst goal difference (-40), worst away record (11 points), most points lost in final 15 minutes (6 more than they won), most time spent losing (41.5% of minutes played), worst record after conceding first (0.21 points per game), worst xG, worst xGA and worst xGD, fewest shots, fewest touches in the opposition box, most shots against and highest PPDA. They also ranked low for goals scored (3rd fewest), home record (2nd worst), second half record (2nd worst), failing to score in matches (15, third worst), scoring 1 or 0 (33 matches, 2nd highest), conceding 3 or more (13 matches, 2nd highest), time spent leading matches (14.7% of minutes), record when scoring first (2nd worst at 1.77 points per game) and 1v1 dribbles (2nd fewest). Finally, they struggled against the best, collecting 76% of their points against bottom half sides, winning only once against the top 15 and not beating any of the top 11.

Who Stood Out?

I confess to not keeping on top of the North and South divisions as much as I’d like owing to time, so seeing Josh Parker’s name was a surprise, especially when I saw his record. He looks every bit an EFL footballer playing part-time football. His partnership with Olly Sanderson was a bright point in the first half of the season. Canice Carroll and Reece Fleet were steady figures whose lack of availability in the second half of the campaign were blows.

What Happens Next?

Oxford City are a club moving in the right direction. This wasn’t a club promoted in a bit of a fluke but one that had done good things for a period, had built and kept a strong core in the building, set up an academy system and produced on the field thanks to good coaching and stylish patterns of play. Stepping down a division always brings a element of concern but their experiences mixing with full-time opposition should help them, especially with American investment coming into the club and further off-field appointments. The primary concern is that they are likely to plying their trade in National League North again, and it will have an impact on them both financially and in recruitment. Not to mention the need for a new gaffer.

Position: 11th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 16; D 14; L 16; F 69; A 64; GD 5; Pts 62

Most Starts: Ethan Ebanks-Landell – 45

Top Goalscorer: Kairo Mitchell – 14

Clean Sheets: 9

Worst Discipline: Harvey Gilmour – 12Y

The Prediction: 14th

Dale have a proud EFL history but enter non-league as one of many humble full-time clubs – it isn’t going to be an easy process. The decision making this summer enhances what McNulty has spoken about, this year being more about forging a culture and identity to build upon rather than focusing on an approach to win promotion at all costs. I’ve little doubt they will find certain periods of the season tough and the team are going to have to work through some difficult moments. I can see a mid-table finish that sees Rochdale finish the season in a better place than they started.

The Reality

This was a solid year for Rochdale, who spent the season developing a change of culture and style and did so unscathed despite continued off-field issues. Jim McNulty epitomised the football club, using everything in his power to unite the team and supporters – not always an easy task post-relegation – while begging and borrowing for players to support a small but resilient squad. Their results were indifferent, unable to put together the consistent form necessary for a top seven finish, but a top half position and stability on the pitch is no mean feat in a league far stronger than most realise when stepping down from EFL.

The Stats

The statistics that best sum up Rochdale are around style and mentality. Stylistically, Rochdale were a heavy possession outfit and ranked fourth in the division for average possession per game at 56.1% while also playing the second smallest percentage of their passes long (10.39%). That bold style was matched by an ability to be patient and it showed with their record in the final 15 minutes of matches – no side won more points in the final 15 minutes (9 more won than they lost) and no side conceded fewer goals in that time period (7). The final statistic I collected – mid-table sides tend not to be at the extreme end of most things – Rochdale also committed the third fewest fouls per 90. Do with that what you like.

Who Stood Out?

I’d be silly not to point out that McNulty took the decision to throw 17-year-old George Nevett into his starting XI from the off and it paid off handsomely, the teenager excelling alongside the similarly excellent but more experienced Ethan Ebanks-Landell. Ryan East and Harvey Gilmour entered unheralded but played enormous roles across the season as did Kairo Mitchell, who led the line so well he became arguably their most important player. Others flashed brightly, including Tyrese Sinclair, Devante Rodney and Cian Hayes, Cameron John played full-back, centre-back and central midfield whenever called upon and I’ve developed a soft spot for Jimmy Keohane and his rampant forward running.

What Happens Next?

On the day I write this, the club have announced that the Ogden Family have purchased a majority share of the club, which hopefully means that we will begin seeing Rochdale act with more financial strength and build on what has been a pretty solid year. They say they want to make the club sustainable, win promotion within three years and increase the social value of the club – hopefully they are able to meet those goals and give Jim McNulty and the club’s supporters more reason to smile.

Solihull Moors

Position: 5th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 21; D 13; A 12; F 71; A 62; GD 9; Pts 76

Most Starts: James Clarke – 45

Top Goalscorer: Josh Kelly – 13

Clean Sheets: 12

Worst Discipline: Jamey Osborne – 10Y

The Prediction: 18th

A manager leaving on the cusp of pre-season, a new man managing in professional football for the first time, a novice director of football employed and a mixed recruitment drive leading to an imbalanced squad. Darryl Eales has proven to be a smart operator in football but he is undeniably taking a risk as he looks to turn the ship back around after last season. On paper, there are some excellent footballers and if it clicks, it could work well. I still expect Kelly to have an excellent season in attack. However, with so many changes, no clear direction or identity and so many learning on the job on and off the pitch, I can’t see this being a positive campaign for Moors.

The Reality

Well, that was wrong, wasn’t it. Those novice employees got a lot of their work spot on, from utilising contacts and understanding what they needed to do, creating a strong leadership core that they will hope to build upon and reaching two Wembley finals. Whing managed the situation brilliantly, offering no excuses and showing an ability to adapt to the hands he was dealt. They started the season 14 unbeaten and ended the season with three defeats in 16 to secure their play-off spot, meaning they came through a tricky mid-season spell relatively unscathed. A tremendous job. It’s such a shame that their efforts ended in penalty shoot-out defeats at Wembley in both the play-off and FA Trophy finals.

The Stats

Solihull Moors had a season that effectively split into three campaigns but there were patterns to pick up. For starters, only Chesterfield and Bromley lost fewer matches and it helped that they conceded few – 0 or 1 on 31 occasions, joint third best – and scored regularly – only Chesterfield (2) failed to score on fewer occasions than Moors’ 6. Their xG overperformance was a key part of that, Andy Whing’s side having the second biggest overall xG overperformance in the division, at least eight goals better off at both ends. They were also the best side in the division away from home, picking up 40 points and losing just five matches. An important part of their season was their record against the poorer sides, losing just three matches against teams placed 11th or lower, and two of those came against Maidenhead United. Stylistically, I can note that Moors had the third highest PPDA and attempted the third fewest 1v1 dribbles.

Who Stood Out?

Long-time fans of the National League will know just how good Jamey Osborne is and he excelled this season, putting injury woes and ill-discipline behind to run the show for Moors in deeper and more attacking midfield roles, collecting 14 assists along the way. James Clarke remains as steady as ever while Callum Mayco*ck really grew into the season. Alex Whitmore proved a fantastic addition and goalkeepers Tommy Simkin and Nick Hayes did their future prospects no harm. Josh Kelly truly earned his move to AFC Wimbledon while the additions of Tyrese Shade and Tahvon Campbell set the side on their way for a late season promotion push.

What Happens Next?

In theory, Solihull Moors are well set to step forward. Of their key players, Joe Sbarra has departed while the club hope to keep hold of Callum Mayco*ck, but otherwise the spine of the team remains in tact ahead. Andy Whing and Stephen Ward have more time to plan and Darryl Eales is ready to back his men after some years spent improving the communal aspects of the club. Another promotion push will be on the agenda so the question is whether they can get their recruitment right again.

Position: 9th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 21; D 12; L 13; F 70; A 45; GD 25; Pts 65*

*10 points deducted for failing to pay creditors

Most Starts: Jack Bridge – 45

Top Goalscorer: Harry Cardwell – 18

Clean Sheets: 16

Worst Discipline: Gus Scott-Morris – 13Y 1R

The Prediction: 24th

There are two versions of the Southend United story this season. The first is the current reality. R*n M*rtin screws everything up, the club endure points deductions as people aren’t paid and their season never gets going because Maher can’t rely on the same 16 footballers for the entire campaign. The second is far more positive and the one everybody is hoping for – the club is taken over, R*n M*rtin disappears, Kevin Maher receives some backing and the club start to climb the ladder again. I can only judge on the current reality – I was burned by Sc*nthorpe United last season trying to second guess what may happen – but I sincerely hope I’m wrong.

The Reality

How glad I am to be wrong. Southend United were one of the stories of the season, perhaps the story. They were unable to name a full 16 until mid-January, spent periods with only one fit and available substitute, had no tech available to support the players and still finished the season with the best defence, third best goal difference and what would have been a 6th place finish if not for the points deduction. Support from a prospective new owner came in January, allowing John Still, Kevin Maher and their team to refresh and rebuild and all involved deserve huge credit for turning a tough situation into one that almost ended with a play-off campaign.

The Stats

Southend United were one of the best teams in the division. For starters, they recorded the best xGD in the National League, ranking first for xGA and fourth for xG – their underperformance in front of goal (around 15.5 goals) was the key reason they didn’t finish higher. Their defensive record was quite something, conceding the fewest goals in the division (45), the fewest second half goals (24), keeping the most clean sheets (16) and conceding 0 or 1 goals on 34 occasions, a division high. They also conceded the second fewest shots. It helped Southend accrue the longest unbeaten run (15 matches) and the third best goal difference (+25). The Blues were also a clean outfit, collecting the fewest yellow cards and committing the second fewest fouls.

Who Stood Out?

It would be very easy to just list the names of the 12/13 that kept the club in a promising position throughout the first half of the campaign and given they have been a team more about the sum of its parts than individual brilliance, I’m going to mention most of them. Top scorer Harry Cardwell led the line brilliantly in arguably his most consistent season to date and Cavaghn Miley, the dictator at the base of midfield, top of the list – it’s little surprise that their return to full fitness coincided with Southend turning their season on its head. Gus Scott-Morriss is one of the best wing-backs in the division while Jack Bridge and Noor Husin have had big roles to play. And the defensive quarter of Collin Andeng-Ndi, Harry Taylor, Ollie Kensdale and Nathan Ralph deserve huge credit as the key men in the division’s best defence.

What Happens Next?

In an ideal world, the takeover gets officially confirmed in the very near future, Southend United spend the cash they haven’t been able to for a couple of years and really begin to flex their muscles in the division. The prospective owners have supported with cash flow and ensured that Maher and his team have the backing to improve a squad that needed fresh blood. If they can make the squad changes they want to this summer, you have anticipate that a team that have sat at the top of most underlying charts for a couple of years will challenge for promotion. That’s the ideal world. The reality remains a big unknown and like most, I’m just praying that R*n M*rtin finally does the right thing and sells the football club.

Wealdstone

Position: 16th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 15; D 11; L 20; F 60; A 72; GD –12; Pts 56

Most Starts: Jaydn Mundle-Smith – 44

Top Goalscorer: Sean Adarkwa – 10

Clean Sheets: 7

Worst Discipline: Jack Cook – 10Y 1R

The Prediction: 16th

The reason I anticipate a drop off in position for Wealdstone is because I’m not expecting them to fly out of the traps as they did last season – there have been a few changes to the backline and it has taken them time to find the right bodies to replace them, meaning they could be a little unsettled or disorganised early on. Otherwise, I think the Stones will follow a similar pattern to last season, occasionally having a full squad available and going on strong runs as a settled side shows confidence and quality in their play and at other times, struggling for consistent selection, which will affect their results and organisation. I don’t foresee them having many troubles.

The Reality

As ever, Stuart Maynard deserves huge credit for his job at Wealdstone, choosing to avoid the tropes of underdog football by trying to outplay almost everybody they came up against while enhancing young talent. They were in a comfortable position towards the end of January and their home form was excellent but the inevitable happened – Maynard was poached by a club higher up the ladder. The Stones board moved quickly to replace him, bringing in David Noble from St.Albans City. It didn’t work. They won two of their 15 league matches and picked up just two points from six home matches, leaving the club in danger of relegation. The club made the bold decision to make another change with five to go, fan favourite Sam Cox returning on an interim basis and winning three of his five in charge to secure a 16th place finish.

The Stats

The most notable aspect of Wealdstone’s season is that they fielded the youngest team in the league based on minutes played (25.2 years of age), making their survival as a part-time outfit all the better. Not that they didn’t show naivety. The Stones had the third worst away record in the division (20 points), kept the joint third fewest clean sheets (7) and had the worst record in the league when scoring first (1.71 points per game). But they were an enjoyable side to watch and that shows with some of the stylistic numbers, Wealdstone having the third most shots at goal, conceding the third fewest shots against and attempting the third most 1v1 dribbles. Perhaps a little experience could have done them some good after all.

Who Stood Out?

Jaydn Mundle-Smith has been in and out of the Wealdstone side for two years, even moving away on loan last term but returned to play an important role this season either at centre-back, full-back or wing-back. He was helped by having a relatively consistent backline around him in Charlie Barker and the experienced Jack Cook. Both goalkeepers thrived, Jed Ward performing so well he earned game time with League One Bristol Rovers while Marcus Dewhurst proved he has a full-time career in him. Sean Adarkwa really grew into the campaign, finishing up in double figures while Tarryn Allarakhia is a joy to watch.

What Happens Next?

The day before writing this, Matty Taylor has been appointed as manager. It’s an interesting appointment for a number of reasons. Taylor is a massive name at this level, somebody that played at the top level and has EFL management experience while he is local to the area and will no doubt have some excellent contacts. But his time in management hasn’t gone well, failing to last the season on both occasions, while this will be the first time he has a high level of control over footballing decisions beyond coaching. Taking over from somebody as intrinsic to the culture and playing style as Stuart Maynard is never easy and it will be interesting to see how Taylor, another outsider like David Noble, manages the group ahead of another campaign in which they are sure to be amongst the favourites to be relegated.

Position: 17th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 15; D 10; L 21; F 49; A 55; GD –6; Pts 55

Most Starts: Scott Cuthbert – 40

Top Goalscorer: Ricky Korboa – 7

Clean Sheets: 14

Worst Discipline: Tunji Akinola – 11Y 1R

The Prediction: 3rd

I see a similar season for Woking. They will have forwards that make things happen, a powerful defensive and midfield unit, will be hard to beat and strong from set-pieces. I think their new signings improve the starting XI and increase the quality of depth. It will be a side that is chopped and changed during the season because of the age of certain players – it's hard to imagine most of their starting XI starting 40+ matches. It’s probably that last point that makes me feel less secure about the idea of them bettering Chesterfield and Oldham this year, even if I do anticipate them showing slightly more consistency across the 46 games.

The Reality

"It will be a side that is chopped and changed during the season because of the age of certain players – it's hard to imagine most of their starting XI starting 40+ matches”

I’m annoyed with myself. It was right there. If you’re going to back a team to finish towards the top of the division, you have to expect that they will have a core of players likely to start the majority of their matches. That was almost never going to be the case with a side that featured so many players over the age of 30 or with known injury records and had endured so many issues in the second half of the previous campaign. Darren Sarll was sacked with the club having lost seven of nine matches and been knocked out of the FA Cup by 8th tier opposition. Michael Doyle arrived and didn’t get off to the best start as he looked to change both style and personnel. However, his patience, recruitment and a late season tactical switch turned what was looking an increasingly desperate situation into survival, winning six of their final 11 and securing their place in the National League on the final day.

The Stats

In many ways, this wasn’t a particularly exciting campaign as a Woking fan – and I’m not just talking league position. After all, a whopping 34 games (second highest) were drawn or decided by the odd goal while their average total of 2.26 goals per game was the second lowest in the league and the 43% of matches seeing both sides score the lowest. There are two sides to this. Firstly, they were strong defensively, having the third best xGA in the division, the joint highest PPDA, kept 14 clean sheets (joint 2nd) and conceded the joint second fewest goals in the second half of matches (25). But they struggled in front of goal, scoring the second fewest goals (49), joint fewest in the first half of matches (18), failing to score in 17 matches (highest) and underperforming their xG numbers by almost 20 goals. Michael Doyle may look to the chaotic nature of their season as a key reason for that – no side used more than their 41 players. Hardly the recipe for consistent performances.

Who Stood Out?

It was such a mixed season it’s tough to say. Scott Cuthbert wiped up at the end of season awards and he was unquestionably the most consistent member of the squad, leading by example on and off the pitch. Dan Moss had some issues early doors but forced his way back into the XI at the start of their end of season run towards safety and performed well. Others shone brief and bright. Curtis Edwards proved an excellent signing. Tunji Akinola looked a real dominant defensive midfielder at periods. Kevin Berkoe, Max Dyche and Jayden Luker flourished in loan spells. Ricky Korboa occasionally showed why he has played in the EFL.

What Happens Next?

The expectation going into the summer, whether they survived or not, was that Michael Doyle was going to take a sledgehammer to the squad, reducing the age of the team and finding players better suited to the style of football he wants to implement. The retained list backs up those expectations with the only six players under contract and not on the transfer list at the time of writing. Woking remain well backed so they are likely to be okay when it comes to attracting quality to the club but they will need to be smarter in how they recruit going forward. This will be Michael Doyle’s first summer as a manager, so there are a few unknowns and it will be interesting to see how things develop.

York City

Position: 20th

2023-24 Record: Pld 46; W 12; D 17; L 17; F 55; A 69; GD –14; Pts 53

Most Starts: Callum Howe – 42

Top Goalscorer: Dipo Akinyemi – 15

Clean Sheets: 10

Worst Discipline: Ryan Fallowfield – 8Y 1R

The Prediction: 6th

I can’t lie, I’m uncomfortable about this selection. The reason I’m uncomfortable is because I’m still unsure how much I can trust Matt Uggla to let football people get on with football matters. My concern is that the moment the side hits a dip, which is likely given the number of changes and the nature of National League football, Uggla will want do something silly. It’s a feeling I can‘t shake. However, I’m choosing to give him and the club the benefit of the doubt. For starters, 49% of the club is still owned by the fans’ trust, which means they continue to have a say on matters and that will hopefully prove important. I also get positive vibes from Morton, his focus and the structure of the side he has selected during pre-season. The vibes appear positive and I can’t envisage too many issues early doors, which should give them a strong footing to build upon.

The Reality

Like Woking, I’m annoyed with my pre-season prediction. The signs were there. The owner was a novice with a rep for having more money than sense, their Head of Recruitment was also their first-choice goalkeeper and their manager was a coach given his first permanent role. They started the campaign with a bloated squad made up of players from four different recruitment strategies and a number of players on long-term deals, some of whom were earning considerably more than others. It’s a lesson on how not to run a football club. Michael Morton was sacked after a winless start and replaced by Neal Ardley, who got the side fitter and found structure but a mid-table record (eight wins and losses in 28 matches) and lack of goals led to his departure as Uggla rolled the dice once more. Worthing boss Adam Hinshelwood took the reins and started disastrously, losing three of his first four matches and conceding 12 goals in the process. Fortunately, he was able to turn it around, winning four of his final seven to finish just above the dotted line and provide relief to those above him.

The Stats

The instability of York City’s campaign showed with them having used the joint most players in the division (41) and their issues with consistency and 90 minutes performances. York recorded the joint third fewest wins across the campaign and it wasn’t until their end of season run under Adam Hinshelwood that they put together back-to-back victories. They had the worst second half record in the division and conceded the second most goals in the second half of matches (49). They weren’t a huge threat going forward, their xG the second worst in the division, having the third fewest shots and also failing to score a single penalty all campaign. They were also the second least fouled team in the league. What they did at least manage to do was keep games tight, drawing on 17 occasions and staying level for 57.1% of their minutes played, both second highest totals. Another issue was a failure to get results against the top sides, winning just one home match against the division’s top 10.

Who Stood Out?

A tough campaign defined by its inconsistency means few stood out over the season. Dipo Akinyemi is the obvious one, going some way to repaying the faith shown in him with 21 goals contributions and an excellent relationship with fans. I’m a fan of Ryan Fallowfield and his energy down the right-hand side was important, as was his stint at centre-back late in the season. Callum Howe was a consistent figure at centre-back throughout, offering some stability and leadership.

What Happens Next?

More change but hopefully with more clarity. The club’s recruitment team has been moved on, four players have been released and with at least 26 players still on the books at the time of writing and a budget that dwarfs most at the level, you have to expect more players come and go. The early part of this summer has to be all about improving processes and finding consistent ways of working to achieve the goals fans and owners alike are desperate to achieve. Hinshelwood has an almighty task on his hands but will also know that with a good summer, there’s no reason they can’t do much, much better.

National League 2023-24 Club-by-Club Review (2024)

Aldershot Town

Barnet

Bromley

Dagenham and Redbridge

Eastleigh

FC Halifax Town

Hartlepool United

Maidenhead United

Oxford City

Solihull Moors

Wealdstone

York City

References