On Friday’s Seaside Joe, we reviewed the offensive linemen on the Seahawks roster and I would add that even if Seattle’s starting five isn’t above-average at the start of the season then perhaps the unit has above-average potential to be GOOD by the end of the season. An interior group of Olu Oluwatimi, Laken Tomlinson, and Christian Haynes may not be the three ideal names that people had in mind four months ago, but what the unit does give me is just as much optimism for the offensive line as I had going into 2023.
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There isn’t much to say right now about the quarterback and running back rooms, maybe only because those positions don’t necessitate as many bodies and we know that Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet are ‘the big three’ in the backfield.
But what if we lump the receivers and tight ends together to ask and answer the question, “Which pass catchers will be prioritized in 2024?” Because with at least four notable players vying for targets, there won’t be any easy answers for you, me, Geno, or Ryan Grubb.
This is my guess as to the order in which Seahawks pass catchers will be targeted in 2024. First, let’s find out what your guess is…I ask that you answer these before getting to my reasons below so that I don’t influence your responses. This is who YOU THINK SHOULD get the most targets:
I was going to put a fifth option of “Someone else” but that’s just a ridiculous answer not worth drawing any attention from serious answers. If Jake Bobo or someone else leads the team in targets, something went seriously wrong. Now let’s change the question slightly from what your opinion is to whether or not you think the Seahawks will agree. Who do you predict will get the most targets?
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Now let’s just stick with WILL, not should:
And third:
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I always keep polls open for 3 days. I’m not sure why, one day would be enough, but if you’re reading this on Monday or Tuesday, you can still answer.
Now here’s what I think the Seahawks order of targets could and potentially will be in 2024 with some reasons behind why it would be better to feed DK Metcalf this year than Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant.
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Target #1 - DK Metcalf
Metcalf and Lockett were basically even-stevens in targets last year. Metcalf was targeted 119 times in 16 games, catching 66 passes for 1,114 yards and eight touchdowns. Though Metcalf has had more productive seasons, including catching 90 passes in 2022 and gaining 1,303 yards in 2020, I don’t think he’s had a more complete season than the one he had last year.
Despite ongoing issues with penalties that will not likely ever go away, there were games when it finally appeared as though the Seahawks wanted to make DK Metcalf the offense’s go-to player when the game is on the line. Here is a highlight reel on YouTube of his best plays in 2023. These are just his plays against the Cowboys, which has an annoying soundtrack but I can at least embed the video unlike ones uploaded by the NFL:
Surprisingly, Metcalf was much more productive in the first half of games than the second half of games:
Metcalf in the 1st half: 67 targetes, 37 catches, 730 yards, 6 TD
Metcalf in the 2nd half: 50 targets, 27 catches, 363 yards, 2 TD
On play action passes, Metcalf had a 25 yards-per-catch average on 14 receptions and scored two touchdowns. That’s 17.5 yards per target.
Receivers want the ball and number one receivers want the ball the most obviously, but there’s also a priority on scoring touchdowns which means that number one receivers expect to see the ball in the red zone. Metcalf was targeted 23 times in the red zone, catching 10 passes and scoring six touchdowns.
Those totals are similar to his red zone work in 2022, but he was much more efficient in the red zone during Russell Wilson’s final season in 2021: That year, Metcalf caught 12 of 19 red zone targets and scored nine touchdowns. In 2020, he caught eight of 16 red zone targets and scored five times.
Not only is DK Metcalf Seattle’s most unique receiving threat and the most obvious receiver to be targeted in the red zone, it also behooves the Seahawks to feed DK Metcalf as much as possible right now and I’ll tell you why:
