Maryland Climate-Smart Ag Project Research Team Reports Progress
By Terry Nuwer
Project Coordinator, Hughes Center
Research for the Hughes Center’s Maryland Climate-Smart Agriculture Project reported progress recently. This project is scheduled to deliver a final report in the summer of 2024 that details current and future potential climate-related impacts on Maryland’s agricultural systems and mitigation and response strategies for farmers that will have co-benefits to their operations and the environment.
A team of Maryland scientists covering various disciplines who work for institutions including the University of Maryland College Park, University of Maryland Eastern Shore and University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, are performing the research related to this project.
Here’s what the researchers have been working on:
In their analysis of historical climate data, researchers have found that extreme precipitation and temperature events were lower in Maryland between 1950 and 2000 compared to dates after 2000.
After 2000, an increased number of weather extremes occurred for all counties, especially the average amount of precipitation per rainfall event. From here, using historical state-wide averages of surface air temperature and total precipitation, researchers will develop simulations and projections of climate data for the next 30 to 40 years, including how each county will be impacted.
Soil Carbon: One current hot topic in climate science is questions over how effectively soil can capture and hold carbon dioxide (CO2), also termed “soil carbon sequestration.” Investigators have found that an estimated ~5.7 million metric tons of CO2 could be sequestered between the years 2021 and 2030 from agricultural lands in Maryland. This number is closely tied to specific tillage and planting practices, such as no-till and cover cropping. However, investigators will now factor in the actual impact of climate change, which, based on their models, may cause a net loss of soil CO2 under some scenarios.
Livestock: How will these changing weather patterns potentially impact animal agriculture in Maryland? Heat stress causes a loss in meat and milk production because it takes a lot of energy to cool a cow, pig, sheep, or goat’s body — that is energy that would have otherwise gone into muscle gain or producing milk. Investigators will look at how increasingly warmer summer temperatures will impact the livestock industry in Maryland with a focus on dairy cows. There is a seasonal variation in the amount of fat and protein in milk, with higher temperatures causing these amounts to drop. Forecasted temperature increases will likely impact how livestock is managed during the summer months.
Poultry: The broiler industry is not shielded from the impacts of climate change. Last year’s avian influenza outbreak was very costly and sobering for the industry that provides 48% of the market value of Maryland ag products. This outbreak resulted in the loss of over 1.7 million birds in Maryland alone. Climate change may alter the migration behavior and distribution of wild waterfowl and indirectly influence their contact with domestic poultry. Growers may also see increased heat stress for pullets and laying hens. This may result in different summer management strategies, including reducing flock sizes in the summer, dietary changes, and new broiler genetics. Broiler houses of the future may be built with more insulation and greater fan ventilation capacity to compensate for warming summer temperatures. Fuel costs in summer may be offset by lower winter fuel usage due to predicted warmer winter temperatures.
Crops: Agronomic crops like corn were significantly affected by droughts in the 1980s and 1990s, with the worst impacts for corn in Southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore. Researchers will evaluate by county the impact of changing temperature and precipitation patterns on the yield of various crops.
Pests are a major part of raising animals and crops in Maryland. Scientists are investigating how each of the state’s current pests (including insects, weeds, and pathogens) will respond to climate change. Farmers could see many insects overwintering in the future that haven’t done so before as the winters become milder. This may lead to extra generations of these insects that already produce two or more generations per year. Along with our current pests, researchers will also forecast those pests south of Maryland that are most likely to spread northward.
Water: You may have seen a great increase in the number of surface irrigation systems being installed over the last several years. Since 1987, freshwater withdrawn from freshwater aquifers has increased from millions of gallons withdrawn to billions per year. With increasingly variable amounts and timing of precipitation, farmers are using the dependability of irrigation to better control the growing conditions for their crops. For the Coastal Plain areas of Maryland, the researchers will map areas where sea level rise and saltwater intrusion (SWI) are most likely to occur and how salinity will impact yields and profitability of different crops grown in this region.
The Maryland Climate-Smart Agriculture Project will provide Maryland farmers and policymakers with a set of adaptation and mitigation practices in the form of recommendations that they can use to protect and strengthen Maryland farms and farmers and ensure a sustainable food production system.
